Strong confidence in residential sector with increase in planning applications and project commencements-National Housing Construction Index
The National Housing Construction Index compiled and issued by Link2Plans has illustrated a strong confidence in the residential sector with increases in project commencements and new planning applications. This positive trend has continued for the first half of 2014 with both project commencements and planning applications showing significant gains when compared to the first six months of 2013. Year on year, project commencements are up a very healthy +66%, while the number of planning applications is up +19% when compared to the same period in 2013.
The huge increase in project commencements however, is tempered by the fact that there has been a massive drop in the rate of growth in the last few months. Project commencements for the first six months of 2014 have halved when compared to the figures published for January to April of 2014, when project commencements were up year on year at +132%. A rush to get residential construction projects started before new building regulations came into force on 1 March 2014 was the main factor behind the remarkable increases in project commencements in the first few months of 2014.
The data contained in the National Housing Construction Index is aggregated by consultancy Link2Plans from real time planning and project information in every local authority area.
According to Danny O’Shea Managing Director of Link2Plans, “The year on year increases for planning applications and project commencements bodes well for the construction sector in the short to medium term. The +66% year on year increase in project commencements is incredibly positive, notwithstanding the slowdown in the rate of growth in project commencements since the start of the year. Also, the increase in project commencements has been felt across the whole country, with every county recording a rise except for Roscommon which showed no change.”
Referring to the recent Research Note published by the ESRI entitled “Projected Population Change and Housing Demand: A County Level Analysis” which concluded that 90,000 additional housing units will be required to be built across the country between 2011 and 2021, Danny O’Shea, Managing Director of Link2Plans said that “The figures for planning applications and project commencements are extremely positive. They are still relatively modest in the overall context of the level of construction activity required to meet the recent ESRI forecasts for housing requirements. Based on the current level of building activity, there would be a significant shortfall in the estimated 90,000 units required.”
The largest increases in project commencements were in Westmeath (+189%), Monaghan (+138%), Sligo (+114%), Cork (+112%), Meath (+98%), Mayo (+95%) and Waterford (+91%) with the lowest increases in project commencements taking place in Roscommon (+0%), Cavan (+17%), Wicklow (+18%), Louth (+19%), Longford (+26%), and Leitrim (+27%).
Planning Applications remain strong
Sentiment in the construction sector remained strong in the first six months of the year, as planning applications retained the significant gains experienced in the beginning of the year. Nationally, the number of planning applications lodged in the first half of the year was up +19% when compared to the same period in 2013. Dublin was the best performing county, with an increase of +63% when compared to the same period in 2013, and continues the upward trend for Dublin which started in the middle of 2013.
Danny O’Shea Managing Director of Link2Plans “the upward trend in the number of planning applications that started at the beginning of 2014 shows no signs of slowing down and is evidence of level of confidence returning to the construction sector. Over half the counties recorded an increase in planning applications with Dublin again recording the biggest gain with an increase of +63%. Other counties which recorded substantial increases in the number of planning applications were Waterford (+59%), Wicklow (+46%), Meath (+40%) and Kerry (+32%). The largest falls in planning applications occurred in Leitrim (-37%), Laois (-16%), Donegal (-16%), Cork (-11%), Carlow (-10%) and Kilkenny (-8%).”
The National Housing Construction Index is produced by a team of researchers at Link2Plans and it relates to all Planning Applications and Project Commencements throughout the months of January to June 2014 and gives a direct comparison with the same period in 2011, 2012 and 2013.
Link2Plans have produced this index bi-monthly and it has been the most accurate barometer of real time sentiment (planning applications) and actual residential construction activity (project commencements) including residential developments (multi units), one-off housing (self-build) and one-off housing extensions.